$120k in 2023, $1M by 2030: What Purpose Do Long-Term Bitcoin Forecasts Serve?

Cryptocurrency is currently in the midst of its second crypto winter, but that hasn’t stopped bullish predictions from flowing in from all angles. Being a volatile market, predictions must always be taken with a pinch of salt. No one knows if the market is going to go up or down, left or right, and predictions are mainly based on individual visions for crypto’s future – because while the market has indicators, those indicators can be swept away in a terrible hour. 

Even the past cannot be accurately gleaned from. For instance, Terra and LUNA had historically remained pegged to their assets, but this did not stop them from de-pegging and causing a shockwave throughout the crypto market. Likewise, history would have told us that Ethereum and Bitcoin were on the path of continued growth before the de-pegging debacle sent them tumbling back in time. The market is fragile, and any number of events could send coins rising or falling, one way or the other.

And yet the predictions keep coming. They are necessary when it comes to making an investment, of course, as any user has to have at least an idea of where a coin might be headed before putting substantial sums into their portfolio. But how accurate are long-term forecasts and should you take any stock from them? In order to answer this question, let’s look at the top coin in the market and how experts are forecasting it will perform over the next year and decade:

The Bitcoin Predictions

As of right now, every alt-coin in the market pales in comparison to the price of Bitcoin. Since its inception back in 2009, it has been a market leader, even reaching a peak of $69,000 back in November 2021, before being knocked down a few pegs by external events in 2022.

Despite its current lull, however, predictions remain optimistic. Just three months ago, popular analyst Joe Rager argued that Bitcoin could make profits of around $28,000 to $31,000 with the next crypto breakout, and this would tip the coin towards being bullish. 

Another lead analyst, TechDev, went even further, predicting that Bitcoin would hit around $120,000 in 2023 based on the TSI (True Strength Index) metric – a metric which uses several base calculations to determine how oversold an asset will be at a particular price. In their words, Bitcoin would ride an intermediate wave to $80-120K in 2023 before reclining down to $30-50K for its halving in 2024, and then would shoot back up to a new peak of $200,000 to conclude its cycle in 2024. 

Meanwhile, bullish crypto investment firm Cathie Wood told Bloomberg that they predicted Bitcoin to reach $1M by 2030, with the current FTX-induced crash proving Bitcoin is insulated from crypto-related crisis – due in part to its limited supply of 21M BTC setting it apart from other currencies.

Are The Bitcoin Predictions Reliable?

Every expert will have their own reasons for their predictions. Events in the crypto market are rarely black and white, which means that a number of attitudes can be gleaned from investors based on their own portfolios and visions for the future. But that is not to say they are reliable. 

For starters, a large part of cryptocurrency value fluctuates depending on public sentiment. If people believe that Bitcoin will go up – and this belief picks up steam on social media – then more users will invest in BTC to prepare for the event - which paradoxically makes it happen! 

Crypto whales, for instance, often make unexpected swings towards certain alt-coins – for reasons not many users will understand – and this act alone drives the value up due to the number of users who follow in their wake. In this way, investors like Cathie Wood and Ark Investment Management could be making such bullish predictions to help drive the market a certain way rather than expressing them for specific, reliable reasons.

It is also important to note that even the experts who make these predictions are not altogether convinced by them. Looking once again at analyst TechDev, in their Twitter posts, they screenshotted data to back their claims, yet stated that even they were not sure it would happen after writing it down. This leaves any user in a bit of a tricky situation. How can anyone take stock of predictions if the predictors themselves are not even sure of their value? There may be some truth to the forecasts, especially when levelled with data of the past, but how can they be reliable amongst so much volatility and indecision? 

The Correct Response To Crypto Forecasts

For any crypto investor, it is important to have an individual vision of the market and where it might be headed. This can be gleaned not only from the experts or whales but also from crypto communities and brokers who discuss recent market movements and share insights. Of course, as mentioned previously, there is often data behind many predictions made, but the market is so volatile that any event could make a forecast immediately irrelevant. 

It is also important to note that, at this point, cryptocurrency is so much more than just a digitised asset. There are whole ecosystems being created that make it unwise to forge a portfolio based on monetary value alone. For instance, while the price of Ethereum sits below Bitcoin right now, it has undergone a number of upgrades which could make it the leading coin between 2030-2040. Of course, the price predictions are still lower than Bitcoin – many are forecasting that Ethereum could be worth $21,000 by 2030 – but the position it has built for itself in the lead-up to Web3 could altogether make it a more substantial investment. 

Of course, many trading analysts have successful portfolios curated entirely due to their market vision, but that does not mean they should necessarily be acted upon. The important thing for an investor to do is to take on board the general sentiment and then come to their own conclusions of what they consider reliable or untrustworthy. For this reason, substantial knowledge of the market is needed. An investor may not be able to rely on an expert's predictions, but they must be able to rely on their own decision-making. Only that way can they make sensible choices which have the most likelihood of leaving them in a strong position when the future finally arrives.